Skeptics and True Believers

Skepticism and analysis surround every team as the second week of the season comes to an end. I guess I’m here to join the party–mainly for analysis, not for skepticism. It’s easy to analyze halfway through the season, but only two weeks into the season seems a little rash, doesn’t it? Is it appropriate to analyze, criticize, and skepticize (yes, made up word) already? I don’t know the answer, but I think it’s appropriate to offer some analysis because the Red Sox have made some easily preventable mistakes that have led to run scoring. And even though it’s early on, there are some serious, and unfortunately controversial issues that need to be addressed. It may be the beginning of the season, but every game counts. These games count as much as they do in September. Each game is of vital importance as each team tries to avoid the obstacles on the road to the postseason. I don’t agree with those who say, “It’s the beginning of the season, they’re just adjusting.” That’s what Spring Training is for. Ideally, teams should work out their kinks during Spring Training. Inevitably, obstacles will arise during the regular season, so I’m here to try and work those out. 

Papi.JPG
Let’s tackle the obvious topic first: David Ortiz. I think he has felt under pressure to perform since the first game of the season. Because of the dismal numbers he put up last season, all reporters ever asked him about during the Spring was his rebound. It is easy to tell how insecure about this situation he is. He snapped at reporters the second day of the season; he got ejected from a game for arguing about a strike; and it is easy to spot the frustrated grimace on his face each time he strikes out. I don’t blame him for feeling pressure, but I’m surprised about how much it’s getting to him. 
I won’t ignore the few hits that he has gotten: some have been solid contact, but others were pure luck. He even picked up the golden sombrero one game where he struck out four times: that’s the problem. He strikes out, and for the most time, he strikes out looking. I’m no hitting guru, so I’m not here to talk mechanics. The fact of the matter is that having him in our lineup is ineffective, and at times, detrimental. So why does Terry Francona put him in the lineup day after day? I think that part of it comes from seniority. Maybe Terry Francona thinks that maybe Big Papi is just going to get out of his funk because of what he has done in the past. But this is the third year in a row that this has been going on. As much as it pains me to say this, he is done. 
I’m sure it will be tough to sit him, but it is necessary. It is important to put the best lineup out there, and putting Big Papi in there does not get the job done. I like the idea of platooning Mike Lowell and Jeremy Hermida at that spot. Hermida has proved himself to be a fantastic pickup coming off the bench for Jacoby Ellsbury while he is injured. I can see him hitting a lot of doubles off the Green Monster. 
Issue number two: The Bullpen. 

Last year, the bullpen was considered our strongest asset. This year, it has been one of the weakest. I don’t think that the loss of Takashi Saito or Billy Wagner really affects that; however, the loss of Justin Masterson does. I’m sure you all know exactly what I’m going to say. Bring up Michael Bowden! We need a long-term middle relief pitcher; especially if our starters are done after the fifth inning because they throw 30 pitches in an inning or two. The Red Sox obviously expect to use him as a middle reliever, so what I don’t understand is why they’re still treating him as a starter in Pawtucket. I think that for a pitcher to be completely effective, they have to know their role (no matter how good they are). Just look how good Justin Masterson is doing with Cleveland now that they have explicitly deemed him a starter. I have no doubt that Bowden has the ability to flourish in either role, but he will be more effective once they tell him what his role actually is so that he doesn’t have to keep switching. 
Ramon Ramirez has been struggling so far, so I really hope that he finds his stuff because he was the unsung hero of last year. Manny Delcarmen still struggles to be consistent, but he has the ability to go multiple innings, which is important. I prefer him over Scott Atchinson anyway. I think that Robert Manuel, now pitching in Pawtucket, could be really effective in the bullpen if he was given a chance.
baby bard.JPG
I know Daniel Bard is very good, but the Red Sox need to use him a little more sparingly. The poor guy has been used so much already this season. He has a wicked slider, but I’d like to see him add a changeup to his repertoire because the radar gun is almost always 90 mph or above, and having that speed constantly will almost surely lead to giving up more home runs. 
My final issue with the bullpen includes Victor Martinez as well. When it comes to Jonathan Papelbon, all he ever calls are fastballs. Papelbon also has a slider and a changeup in his arsenal, so I think that it’s important that he incorporates those as well to avoid meltdowns. I’m sure you all remember his most infamous blown save, and all Victor Martinez called was fastball, after, fastball, after fastball. 
Issue Number 3: Throwing people out
vmart.JPG
Neither Victor Martinez nor Jason Varitek have the ability to throw runners out, and every team knows it. Victor obviously needs to work on his mechanics considering all of his throws are high and to the right. This could create a serious problem. First of all, because the runners can steal so easily, the possibility of inning ending double plays are eliminated, which means that our pitchers will have to work longer, and that we might have to use our bullpen earlier. 
Also, pitching from the stretch is a tough thing for lots of pitchers. I especially noticed that with Clay Buchholz during the Spring, and even he has admitted that it’s something he needs to work on. The pitchers obviously don’t want the runners to steal, so they might feel added pressure to get the ball to the plate quicker. This situation could have disastrous consequences. It is important that the pitchers don’t think about anything but hitting their spots. 
If this becomes a serious problem, the Red Sox do have some catching talent in the minors (with arms) in both Mark Wagner and Luis Exposito. Luis is definitely someone to get excited about, but he still needs some seasoning. Mark Wagner, on the other hand, is in Pawtucket, and I think he is ready to go. 
Issue Number 4: Leaving runners on
Some bats have been quiet (Big Papi), some have been loud (Dustin Pedroia), but the Red Sox have left so many runners on, but I think there is an easy solution that Terry Francona hasn’t seen yet because he is an American League manager: small ball. 
Because the Red Sox focused on improving defense during the offseason, they aren’t full of the 30-40 HR power bats. However, that’s not to say that they aren’t offensively sophisticated. They have the ability to score a lot of runs this season, but it won’t come from lots of long balls. Rarely, if ever, do you see the Red Sox lay down a solid bunt. Perhaps the Red Sox wouldn’t leave as many runners on if they started sacrificially advancing runners more often. I LOVE this kind of baseball; I find it to be the most exciting, and I think that it is a method that the Red Sox must begin to incorporate. 
Those are the biggest issues that I see so far. The defense hasn’t been as spotless as expected, but I think that these acquisitions will pay off in the long run (despite some costly errors early on). Perhaps they’re still adjusting the the eccentricities of Fenway. It’s the big errors that stand out, not the rest of the times that they make the often spectacular play. The last issue I notice (though it hasn’t made much of a signifiant impact) is that sometimes, Adrian Beltre simply swings at terrible pitches. He has been hitting really well thus far though, so I’m not complaining yet. 
Amidst all of my criticisms and analyses, I do have some praise (some of which I have already mentioned): 
-Dustin Pedroia is off to a monstrous start. Contrary to popular belief, he can hit the high inside fastball! 
-Jeremy Hermida has been an extremely valuable asset off the bench. I think he will flourish in Fenway Park. 
-Daniel Bard has been a workhorse. 
-Josh Beckett’s 75 mph curveball his a thing of beauty. I’m so glad we signed him to a 4 year deal. 
-Jacoby Ellsbury was really catching on fire before that unfortunate collision between him and Beltre that has sidelined him since. I really hope that he heals soon, because I really like having him in the leadoff spot. 
I may be skeptical, but I’m a true believer in this Red Sox squad. 
ubaldoooo.jpg
One more thing before I settle down to watch the final game of what has been a frustrating series against the Rays so far. Ubaldo Jimenez threw the first no-hitter of the 2010 MLB season, and the first in Rockies history. Thanks to the twittersphere, I was clued in, and I was able to watch the final three outs of the bottom of the ninth inning. Of course, MLBTV froze up right as Brian McCann hit the ball to second, but I heard it, and that’s just as special. He has been compared to Pedro Martinez, and considering the velocity he had on his fastball so late into the game (and after so many pitches), I have no doubt. As I watched the bottom of the ninth inning, I could feel my heart beating quicker with each out, and my hands shaking  more and more before each pitch was thrown. 
April 17th was an incredible day to be a baseball fan. Tim Lincecum had three hits and three RBIs. The Pirates walked off for the second game in a row thanks to Garrett Jones. The Mets vs Cardinals game went into the 20th inning. The Mets scored both of their runs on sacrifice flies. And Ubaldo Jimenez stunned the Braves lineup. This is what we live for 

16 Comments

you can’t win pennants in April…but you can loose them. I’m a firm believer April is important.
…and yes it does appear throwing out runners will be a problem for the Bosox this year. Theo made me raise an eye-brow more than once over the winter.
mike
http://thebrooklyntrolleyblogger.mlblogs.com/

A very clear-eyed assessment of your team, Elizabeth. You really know your stuff, so since I don’t watch the Red Sox on a regular basis like you do, I’m going with your opinions. I do know that Lowell is still valuable and I’d use him more often as the DH!

http://janeheller.mlblogs.com

thanks for visiting my blog! I’m glad you enjoy it :) You’re blog is nothing short of amazing either! I can feel the love you have for your team. Not to mention repping us females out there!

Ahh Angels have bullpen troubles as well :(

How’s lackey for ya?! Ironic that he is on your side isn’t it? He’s a workhorse and very passionate! ‘member it’s not anger it’s.. passion! So when he screams at Beltre or Dustin Pedroia or what say you for making an error on an easy play it’s passion :D Nah i’m just playing he’s a great pitcher! Hope he’s doing well for ya

http://mimi.mlblogs.com

Excellent analysis! You really nailed it. I hope Papi can bounce back soon. He’s a great player and it’s hard to see him struggle with the bat. It’s only April so he has plenty of time to pick things up.Talk about Saturday baseball! Ubaldo Jimenez’s no-hitter was amazing, coming from a Padres fan :) Mets and Cardinals game made me laugh, really.
http://hyunyoung.mlblogs.com

Elizabeth,
Very good assessement!
We lost Saturday bad but I was so glad for Ubaldo that he got the no-hitter. Only two teams are left without a no-no, the Mets and the Padres.
Emma
http://crzblue.mlblogs.com

The sky is always falling in New England. The Bronx too, but right now mainly New England.
–Jeff
http://redstatebluestate.mlblogs.com/
http://mtrredstatebluestate.com

I came across this blog while reading the great Jane Heller site. Although I am a die hard Yankees fan, I appreciate the love that you have for your Sox. You are able to see your favorite team with astonishing clarity while maintaining a palpable sense of love and devotion. I appreciate that in fans of any team. Many times, people like to criticize their teams and tend to have a very negative perspective. I enjoy sites where that is not he case–this certainly fits that bill. With my Yankees, I love every single player and I appreciate them going out every day, providing me with endless amounts of joy.
As for your post, Ortiz must be having a very difficult time accepting that he has lost most of his ability. I can’t imagine the grief that a player goes through when their career comes to an end. These guys play ball for their entire lives–since they were little kids–so giving it up must be heartbreaking. I think that eventually he will do what is right for the team. I respect Francona for standing behind him because Ortiz did magical things for Boston. Soon though, they will see that Ortiz is hurting the team’s chances. Hopefully, Papi will do what’s right.

Hey, Elizabeth! Nice photo, but I liked the one with Pesky! ;)
Good assessment, indeed, of the Sox’ “areas of concern” (so to speak). I am quite skeptical of the team’s chances, but I’ll be pulling for them all season! Platooning the DH spot with Lowell and Hermida might be a good idea, but I suspect we’ll be needing Hermida in the OF quite a bit (not simply because of Jacoby’s injury).
Congrats to Ubaldo Jimenez. I get the Braves full-time down here (we’re in the middle of nowhere, baseball-wise, but we are considered “Braves Country), so I saw the entire game! I remember seeing Jimenez pitch against us in the 07 WS, Game 2, and he was VERY impressive then. I think he’s going to be good for a LONG time, esp. if he reins in the free passes.
GO SOX!

I agree mostly with #3. Against a team such as the Rays, you have to have an arm behind the plate. I am not saying that is why the Rays earned the sweep, but it is part of the reason why close games became, well, not close games. The Sox are too good to stay down, so I’m worried about when they will wake up.

http://raysfanboy.mlblogs.com/

Amazing analysis. It’s so well written I’m just going to believe it and agree with it :) I get to go visit Fenway in a couple weeks, I’m so excited! xoxo http://diamondgirl55.mlblogs.com

OK Now on the analysis:
I don’t know how old you are, so I’m not going to rip you like I would if you were an obvious adult who should know better. First of all: Don’t feel ashamed or embarrassed because I and many other Red Sox fans have fallen for the same error in judging Ortiz’ 2009 stats: Ortizzle had a VERY good second half of 2009 after his terrible first half. Most of his HRs and RBIs occurred in the second half of the season; and he had 28 HRs and 99 RBIs in a season where batting average at the end of the season was only .238 Here’s a note to you, young intrepid Red Sox statistician: there is a reason why the old school metric of “batting average” has been abandoned for newer metrics in the past 20 years. Study SLG and OPS. “And even though it’s early on, there are some serious, and unfortunately controversial issues that need to be addressed. It may be the beginning of the season, but every game counts. These games count as much as they do in September. Each game is of vital importance as each team tries to avoid the obstacles on the road to the postseason. I don’t agree with those who say, “It’s the beginning of the season, they’re just adjusting.” That’s what Spring Training is for. Ideally, teams should work out their kinks during Spring Training. Inevitably, obstacles will arise during the regular season, so I’m here to try and work those out. ” Noble sentiment and objective. Here are the flaws in your argument: “These games count as much as they do in September”. True. But you can no more extrapolate from 14 games worth of the Red Sox’ performance where they will be in the AL East standings in September than you can extrapolate how many eggs a chicken will lay in its lifetime by a day’s production at the beginning of her egg-laying life. The final standings will be based on the wins vs losses over an entire 162-game season. We don’t have enough data at this time to determine that anyone’s season is in jeopardy, let alone over. My experience teaches me that the Red Sox perform better when they get off to a slow start than they do when they get off to a torrid start; and this holds true in most instances, as well as for teams who get off to a torrid start, like the Yanks and Devil Rays. Your idea of platooning Lowell and Hermida at DH is astute. Your dissing of the Red Sox pen is premature. Scott Atchison has performed very well from the pen for the most part, as has Ramon Ramirez in the last 2 games. Ramirez has given up 4 hits and 1 walk in his last 3 games over 5 and 2/3ds innings. Atchison has 3 earned runs and 2 walks with 7 KOs in 8 2/3 innings. His ERA now stands at a respectable 3.12 Atchison and Ramirez looked very good against the Rays in the last 2 games, and they are one of the toughest teams we’ll face all year. I expect good things to come from these two pitchers this year. Your analysis of Daniel Bard is way off. bard is going to be a horse for us this year. He has pitched very well: his ERA is 2.29 and he has only 2 earned runs in 8 games including 3 against the Yankees and one each against Minnesota and Tampa Bay. That’s pretty damned good. Ramon Ramirez’ ERA has been dropping like a rock. After his first outing, his ERA was 54.00!! One game later it was down to 13.50. Now, it’s at 6.43, but he hasn’t given up an earned run in his last 3 games, including one against Minnesota and 2 against Tampa Bay! Early in the season, statistics lie. One bad outing can push a pitcher’s ERA into the stratosphere – see John Lackey’s ERA after today’s game. All in all, you have the makings of a very nice sportscaster; but you have to look at those stats a little bit more closely before you post. If you do, your analysis will only get better… and it’s pretty decent already. Best wishes

Love,

Houndcat

Good news: You’re cute as a button!

Bad news: You’re way shorter than even Dustin Pedroia!

Wait: maybe that’s really good news, because you are one of the few people on Earth that make him feel like a giant when you stand next to him! Plus: You’re Cute as a Button!

redsoxgirl46 & Dustin Pedroia: a match made in heaven!

Love,

Houndcat

Tough series for the Sox. They have too much going for them not to bounce back, though. Hang in there…at least your not a Tigers fan…
-Mike
‘Minoring In Baseball’
http://burrilltalksbaseball.mlblogs.com

Ahhhh Justin Masterson. I knew we would miss him at some point. Great analysis and I will agree with Houndcat – you are cute as a button. LOL!

Jen
http://faithful.mlblogs.com

I tried watching the end of that Mets-Cards game. Fell asleep for awhile, woke up for the 19th and saw the Mets score and the Cards tie it, then fell asleep again and missed the 20th! Husband woke me up. Somebody said there were two teams without a no-hitter (Mets and Padres) – I thought there were three (Rays)?
Sue
Rants, Raves, and Random Thoughts

don’t we all have things we need to work on? Angels have their share of problems too. Funny you write this because before the season started I was very envious of the Red Sox rotation (still am! guilty!). You guys are a powerhouse! Pitching wise at least :P

It’s been a crazy couple of weeks or so.. hopefully more things to cheer about!

http://mimi.mlblogs.com

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